Story by Mike Bain/cvnznews.com
Christopher Luxon is confronting the most perilous moment of his leadership after the latest Taxpayers’ Union–Curia poll plunged National to 28.4%, its worst showing since the final days of the Judith Collins era. Senior National figures insist there is no active move against the Prime Minister — but privately, many now concede the question can no longer be avoided: is Luxon’s leadership sustainable, and if not, who replaces him?
The poll, revealed by the Herald, shows National down nearly three points from February, a result that would slash the party to 36 seats, twelve fewer than it won in 2023. Several MPs would lose their jobs. Labour, meanwhile, edges up to 34.4%, enough for the centre‑left bloc to form a government on these numbers.
Inside National, the mood is described as “grim but not mutinous.” MPs spoken to before publication were aware of the result and bracing for fallout. While none were prepared to openly discuss a challenge, several acknowledged Luxon would face “serious scrutiny” if the trend continues.
The timing could hardly be worse for the Prime Minister. This week alone, Luxon has been forced to correct two public statements — one on New Zealand’s position regarding US and Israeli strikes on Iran, another on visa extensions linked to the Middle East conflict. Green co‑leader Chlöe Swarbrick said the Prime Minister “just doesn’t seem to know what is going on,” while commentators compared his post‑Cabinet performance to Clare Curran’s infamous stumbles before her resignation.
The Ipsos Issues Monitor added further pressure, showing Labour ahead or equal on 15 of 20 major issues, including cost‑of‑living — the very terrain National campaigned on.
Preferred‑Prime‑Minister numbers now place Chris Hipkins ahead of Luxon, 22.7% to 21%.
Against this backdrop, Wellington insiders are already gaming out scenarios. Some speculate that ACT could demand a leadership reset if National’s numbers continue to fall. Others whisper about New Zealand First’s leverage if the coalition becomes unstable. A smaller group wonders whether National MPs themselves might eventually conclude that a change — however messy — is the only path to survival.
For now, Luxon remains leader, and his caucus remains publicly loyal. But the political reality is shifting. If the polls do not, the question may soon move from whispered speculation to open debate: is this the endgame for Christopher Luxon’s leadership — and who stands ready to take his place?
