Story by Mike Bain\/cvnznews.com<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Christopher Luxon is confronting the most perilous moment of his leadership after the latest Taxpayers\u2019 Union\u2013Curia poll plunged National to 28.4%<\/strong>, its worst showing since the final days of the Judith Collins era. Senior National figures insist there is no active move against the Prime Minister \u2014 but privately, many now concede the question can no longer be avoided: is Luxon\u2019s leadership sustainable, and if not, who replaces him?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n The poll, revealed by the Herald<\/em>, shows National down nearly three points from February, a result that would slash the party to 36 seats<\/strong>, twelve fewer than it won in 2023. Several MPs would lose their jobs. Labour, meanwhile, edges up to 34.4%<\/strong>, enough for the centre\u2011left bloc to form a government on these numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Inside National, the mood is described as \u201cgrim but not mutinous.\u201d MPs spoken to before publication were aware of the result and bracing for fallout. While none were prepared to openly discuss a challenge, several acknowledged Luxon would face \u201cserious scrutiny\u201d if the trend continues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The timing could hardly be worse for the Prime Minister. This week alone, Luxon has been forced to correct two public statements \u2014 one on New Zealand\u2019s position regarding US and Israeli strikes on Iran, another on visa extensions linked to the Middle East conflict. Green co\u2011leader Chl\u00f6e Swarbrick said the Prime Minister \u201cjust doesn\u2019t seem to know what is going on,\u201d while commentators compared his post\u2011Cabinet performance to Clare Curran\u2019s infamous stumbles before her resignation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Ipsos Issues Monitor added further pressure, showing Labour ahead or equal on 15 of 20 major issues, including cost\u2011of\u2011living \u2014 the very terrain National campaigned on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Preferred\u2011Prime\u2011Minister numbers now place Chris Hipkins ahead of Luxon, 22.7% to 21%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Against this backdrop, Wellington insiders are already gaming out scenarios. Some speculate that ACT could demand a leadership reset if National\u2019s numbers continue to fall. Others whisper about New Zealand First\u2019s leverage if the coalition becomes unstable. A smaller group wonders whether National MPs themselves might eventually conclude that a change \u2014 however messy \u2014 is the only path to survival.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For now, Luxon remains leader, and his caucus remains publicly loyal. But the political reality is shifting. If the polls do not, the question may soon move from whispered speculation to open debate: is this the endgame for Christopher Luxon\u2019s leadership \u2014 and who stands ready to take his place?<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Story by Mike Bain\/cvnznews.com Christopher Luxon is confronting the most perilous moment of his leadership after the latest Taxpayers\u2019 Union\u2013Curia poll plunged National to 28.4%, its worst showing since the final days of the Judith Collins era. Senior National figures insist there is no active move against the Prime Minister \u2014 but privately, many now<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10745,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[41],"tags":[225,113,294],"coauthors":[709],"class_list":{"0":"post-10743","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-new-zealand","8":"tag-christopher-luxon","9":"tag-new-zealand","10":"tag-opinion-poll"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Luxon.avif","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10743","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10743"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10743\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10748,"href":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10743\/revisions\/10748"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/10745"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10743"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10743"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10743"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcoauthors&post=10743"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}