{"id":8902,"date":"2026-01-24T13:52:45","date_gmt":"2026-01-24T00:52:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/?p=8902"},"modified":"2026-02-03T18:02:42","modified_gmt":"2026-02-03T05:02:42","slug":"8902","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/?p=8902","title":{"rendered":"Graham Adams: Hipkins Revives Failed 2023 Election Tactics"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Opinion: Graham Adams<\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n

When Chris Hipkins succeeded Jacinda Ardern as Prime Minister in January 2023, he adopted what was essentially a \u201csmaller target\u201d strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He announced a policy bonfire to sideline some of the Labour government\u2019s most contentious proposals \u2014 including the RNZ-TVNZ merger, hate-speech laws and the biofuels mandate. Instead, he claimed he would concentrate on \u201cbread-and-butter\u201d issues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Initially, his approach worked. Labour shot up in the polls but after several months they began steadily falling. Voters realised Hipkins was not the new broom the media had implausibly portrayed him to be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In particular, it became clear he had no intention of rejecting co-governance, which was arguably the most polarising of all the policies stealthily adopted by Labour after its landslide victory in 2020. He tried to pretend he was making significant changes to Three Waters \u2014 including by increasing the number of Water Entities from four to 10 \u2014 but voters soon twigged they were being duped. Many realised he was not serious about sweeping away the most polarising policies but rather sweeping them under the rug.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hipkins led Labour to a crushing defeat at the election with only 26.9 per cent of the vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now he\u2019s trying a variation on the same tactic. He is again trying to persuade voters that a government he leads would be focused most keenly on \u201cjobs, health, homes\u201d \u2014 which is simply a repeat of 2023\u2019s \u201cbread-and-butter\u201d issues. In short, once again, it appears he\u2019d prefer not to remind the electorate the entirety of what he intends but rather concentrate on a small portion of his plans. That is to say, he is pursuing a \u201csmall target\u201d policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In his address to the Labour party conference in December, he never mentioned climate change, for example, despite having pledged to overturn the oil-and-gas ban.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He made his position very clear on climate change to Newstalk ZB\u2019s Heather du Plessis Allan in 2024 when she tackled him on the party\u2019s commitment to 100 per cent renewable electricity, accusing him of putting the \u201cclimate ahead of jobs\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When she asked about the number of jobs lost by banning oil-and-gas exploration, Hipkins replied: \u201cHow many jobs are we going to have if we don\u2019t tackle climate change and the planet becomes unliveable?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He didn\u2019t mention Te Tiriti or co-governance in his December speech either, although \u2014 according to Peeni Henare during the T\u0101maki Makaurau by-election \u2014 he has promised to reinstate the M\u0101ori Health Authority and resurrect the compulsory schools Aotearoa Histories curriculum, introduced during his five-year tenure as Education minister.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To gauge his position on M\u0101ori nationalism generally, it is worth noting Hipkins has said iwi didn\u2019t cede sovereignty to the Crown in 1840 and has argued \u201cthere is nothing undemocratic about co-governance\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last February, he initially declined to firmly rule out accepting a M\u0101ori commissioner with the power of veto over Parliament\u2019s legislation, as Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori\u2019s co-leader Rawiri Waititi had suggested, referencing David Seymour\u2019s Treaty Principles Bill as an example of the kind of initiative that could be overruled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Speaking to RNZ the following morning, Hipkins was less hesitant, saying he didn\u2019t agree with setting up a Parliamentary Commissioner for Te Tiriti \u2014 at least \u201cnot in the way they\u2019ve defined it\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, he added: \u201cI don\u2019t think we should be creating a commissioner that could [overturn laws]. But we\u2019re open to how we can make sure that there are better checks and balances within our constitutional framework.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although Hipkins and the legacy media generally avoid the topic, there is every reason to suspect the Treaty \u201cpartnership\u201d and attendant co-governance policies will be enthusiastically revived in some form if Labour leads the next government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The M\u0101ori caucus \u2014 led by Willie Jackson who is also the campaign chair for the M\u0101ori seats \u2014 is influential. Given the party intends to win all seven electorates, Labour\u2019s candidates will be under pressure to rival Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori with the kind of promises Oriini Kaipara made in September\u2019s T\u0101maki Makaurau by-election. Among a series of extravagant pledges, she told The Hui that she wanted \u201cco-governance right across the board at a local, regional and national level\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This presents a dilemma for Hipkins since he wants to pose as a moderate compared to the radicalism of the Greens and Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori in the hope of attracting the soft centre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a taster for what may be in store under a Hipkins-led coalition, Henare also said Labour would provide $1 billion for M\u0101ori initiatives \u2014 as Ardern\u2019s administration did in 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When pressed on whether securing a billion dollars was possible, Henare replied \u201cmost definitely\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While promoting Labour\u2019s proposed capital gains tax in November, Hipkins said there wouldn\u2019t be any more \u201csignificant\u201d taxes on land, inheritance and wealth announced before the election. This, of course, opens up the possibility of \u201csignificant\u201d taxes being instituted after the election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That might even seem inevitable, you might think, if Hipkins is obliged to form a coalition with the Greens and the rump of Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori, as seems likely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Greens have promised a suite of new wealth, inheritance and income taxes to raise some $88 billion in additional tax over four years. And while Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori hasn\u2019t indicated exactly how much extra revenue it would extract, it is dedicated to a wealth tax, higher company tax rate and a foreign companies tax.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among Hipkins\u2019 attempts to apologise for the bungled plans of the Ardern era and his own role in them, he has admitted that Labour made promises in 2017 \u2014 including a light rail project in Auckland and 100,000 new houses under KiwiBuild \u2014 it couldn\u2019t deliver.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In December, he told the party conference: \u201cEvery promise that I put my name to at the next election will be a promise I know we can deliver on.\u201d Yet one of his first major promises of the election campaign has been for Labour to magic up 4.5 million extra GP appointments each year through \u201csmarter digital tools and more efficient systems\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The plan to offer three free GP visits annually for all New Zealanders would be financed by a 28 per cent capital gains tax on commercial and residential investment properties that wouldn\u2019t come into operation until mid-2027 and is not retrospective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hipkins seems unaware of the irony of a Labour leader banking on the prices of already overvalued homes rising substantially to fund a surge in taxpayer-funded GP visits \u2014 including for the wealthy \u2014 that will undoubtedly overwhelm primary healthcare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Labour is also proposing a \u201clevy\u201d on international organisations streaming content \u2014 such as Netflix, Disney+ and Amazon Prime Video \u2014 with the money being funnelled to the local screen industry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Critics have pointed out that the levy will simply be passed onto viewers, which will effectively be a tax added to their subscriptions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given that Roy Morgan surveys show Netflix alone is now watched in an average month by 2.29 million viewers \u2014 or 52.2 per cent of New Zealanders \u2014 the tax is guaranteed to be widely unpopular.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And it\u2019s not as if local productions are wildly popular. Proceeds will likely go to an agency such as NZ on Air or the NZ Film Commission to be doled out to \u201capproved\u201d productions. But, as the late producer John Barnett pointed out, between 2020 and 2023 the Film Commission spent about $85 million on more than 50 films that made less than $14 million in total at the box office.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, NZ on Air has funded no fewer than three admiring screen projects focused on Chl\u00f6e Swarbrick, despite the fact she is a sitting politician.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pollster David Farrar\u2019s tweet summed up much of the likely reaction: \u201cYour streaming subs will increase to fund crap that you\u2019d rather poke an eye out than watch sober.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Perhaps the clearest sign that a Hipkins-led government will have to raise taxes (or borrow a lot more money) is his commitment to reinstate the pay equity programme abandoned by the Coalition government. The extra $12 billion in government expenditure will have to come from somewhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What makes his election strategy verge on the tragi-comic is that he is insisting Labour is determined to regain voters\u2019 trust this year \u2014 despite now repeating the politics of omission that led them to distrust him less than three years ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cStrategic hibernation\u201d \u2014 as political analyst Bryce Edwards has described the \u201csmall target\u201d policy \u2014 may possibly work for Hipkins at the election but only as long as the public isn\u2019t informed about the policies he is keen to hide under the rug.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Graham Adams is a freelance editor, journalist and columnist. He lives on Auckland\u2019s North Shore. This column was first published at <\/em>The Platform.<\/u><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Opinion: Graham Adams When Chris Hipkins succeeded Jacinda Ardern as Prime Minister in January 2023, he adopted what was essentially a \u201csmaller target\u201d strategy. He announced a policy bonfire to sideline some of the Labour government\u2019s most contentious proposals \u2014 including the RNZ-TVNZ merger, hate-speech laws and the biofuels mandate. Instead, he claimed he would<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8904,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[45],"tags":[303,226,304,305,113],"coauthors":[426],"class_list":{"0":"post-8902","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-opinion","8":"tag-chippie","9":"tag-chris-hipkins","10":"tag-election26","11":"tag-labour","12":"tag-new-zealand"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8902","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8902"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8902\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9663,"href":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8902\/revisions\/9663"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/8904"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8902"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8902"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8902"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcoauthors&post=8902"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}