{"id":9867,"date":"2026-02-10T17:29:40","date_gmt":"2026-02-10T04:29:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/?p=9867"},"modified":"2026-02-10T17:27:24","modified_gmt":"2026-02-10T04:27:24","slug":"bryce-edwards-the-quiet-war-at-waitangi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/?p=9867","title":{"rendered":"BRYCE EDWARDS: The Quiet War at Waitangi"},"content":{"rendered":"\n


<\/strong>OPINION: Dr. Bryce Edwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Many expected fireworks at Waitangi this year. In an election year, with the Government\u2019s record on Treaty issues still fresh and raw, the annual commemorations looked set to be a battleground. Instead, the week turned out to be remarkably calm on the surface. And deeply fractured underneath.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The real story of Waitangi 2026 wasn\u2019t about M\u0101ori versus the Crown. It was about M\u0101ori versus M\u0101ori, and an opposition that seems incapable of getting its act together nine months out from polling day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Quieter Waitangi<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The overwhelming consensus from journalists and commentators is that Waitangi this year was harmonious and relaxed, especially compared with the drama of 2024 and 2025. Part of the explanation is obvious: Act\u2019s Treaty Principles Bill is gone, and with it the galvanising issue that drew tens of thousands onto the streets last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shane Jones reckoned the week reminded him of \u201cthe Waitangi days of the 70s\u201d \u2014 it had an \u201cold-fashioned feel\u201d and relatively little protest. Veteran broadcaster Waihoroi Shortland agreed. So did Bishop Te Kito Pikaahu, who told Glenn McConnell at Stuff that \u201cevery year, I\u2019m seeing more tolerance, more understanding, and more fellowship and cooperation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ng\u0101i Tahu, one of the country\u2019s largest iwi, sent a delegation to Waitangi for the first time in more than two decades. This was a show of kotahitanga prompted by the late K\u012bngi T\u016bheitia\u2019s call for unity. The crowds, though, were smaller. John Campbell noted that attendance has fallen year on year since 2024. Documentary maker Whatanui Flavell offered a blunt explanation: \u201cFor some people, I think it\u2019s fatigue. And sadness.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There might even be something like \u201cTreaty fatigue\u201d setting in across the board. A recent RNZ poll found nearly 40% of voters think the Treaty has \u201ctoo much\u201d influence. After the hikoi, after the bill, and after last year\u2019s Waitangi, people are spent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Protest that wasn\u2019t<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Protest activity against the Government was strikingly insignificant. Activist Wikatana Popata and the Aotearoa Liberation League had planned a human chain to block coalition MPs from entering the Treaty Grounds. But Ng\u0101puhi hau k\u0101inga shut it down, deeming it a breach of tikanga. The organisers backed off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Lyric Waiwiri-Smith reported for the Spinoff, what was supposed to be a dramatic stand ended up as \u201ca standoff with mana whenua.\u201d She said, haukainga \u201chad to remind demonstrators who actually has the mandate to decide who does or doesn\u2019t belong on the marae.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A handful of protesters still showed up, only to be blocked by Ng\u0101puhi security \u2014 one of whom was carrying an axe. Some were removed entirely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The failure of the protest tells its own story. It\u2019s not just that the Government got off lightly. It\u2019s that the M\u0101ori protest movement, which was so formidable during the hikoi, is now fractured. There is no united front. The energy has dissipated \u2014 partly through exhaustion, partly through internal division. RNZ\u2019s Craig McCulloch summed it up neatly: \u201cPerennial agitators Winston Peters and David Seymour seemed almost disappointed at the muted response, with the former clearly trying to provoke a reaction from the crowd.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

War within te ao M\u0101ori<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

If New Zealand as a whole looked relatively united at Waitangi, the picture inside te ao M\u0101ori was the opposite. Kotahitanga (unity) within M\u0101oridom is more absent than ever.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The centrepiece of the drama was Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori, which is tearing itself apart in public. Only one of the party\u2019s four MPs actually turned up: Rawiri Waititi. The Spinoff\u2019s Waiwiri-Smith noted that Debbie Ngarewa-Packer, Oriini Kaipara, and Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke were all \u201cmissing in action.\u201d The party wasn\u2019t even present at the dawn service.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What happened during the p\u014dwhiri for politicians was extraordinary. Eru Kapa-Kingi \u2014 the Ng\u0101puhi leader and Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori dissident who led the Toit\u016b Te Tiriti hikoi \u2014 delivered a scorching whaik\u014drero. He accused Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori of \u201cmilking mana M\u0101ori\u201d and told the party to \u201csort itself out.\u201d He also turned his fire on Labour: \u201cThis Government has stabbed us in the front, but others have stabbed us in the back. Labour \u2014 I\u2019m looking at you.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Waititi, to his credit, responded with something approaching an olive branch. He acknowledged Kapa-Kingi\u2019s anger, apologised for declining an invitation to meet with Ng\u0101puhi last year, and asked for a new meeting. Adam Pearse in the Herald described the gesture as prompting a \u201cstir among Ng\u0101puhi that months of mudslinging was about to end.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And then Kiri Tamihere-Waititi blew it all up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Waititi\u2019s wife (who also serves as the party\u2019s general parliamentary manager and is the daughter of party president John Tamihere) crossed the \u0101tea during a haka tautoko and confronted Eru Kapa-Kingi directly. As she eyeballed him, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi stood and shouted \u201choki atu\u201d (go back).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shane Jones called it \u201cmarae culture at an incandescent level.\u201d But for Ng\u0101puhi leaders, it was something far worse. Ng\u0101puhi chairman Mane Tahere said it was \u201cthe nail in the coffin\u201d and \u201cthe last straw.\u201d His offer of a hui with Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori? Off the table. The relationship is now \u201ch\u014dh\u0101.\u201d Pita Tipene, head of Ng\u0101ti Hine, agreed: \u201cConflicting messages are coming out of Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori and the people of Te Tai Tokerau have really had enough.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are now open calls for a leadership clean-out. Tipene told the Post\u2019s Amelia Wade there was \u201ca clear need for a leadership change.\u201d Former co-leader Te Ururoa Flavell wrote about how \u201csad and disappointing\u201d the week had been for M\u0101ori politics, saying his \u201chope was fading everyday.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tahere was blunt: \u201cUnless something drastic happens between now and November, unfortunately, they have lost the Te Tai Tokerau seat.\u201d As Tipene put it: \u201cThe tide is really going out for Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori at the moment.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An Opposition that can\u2019t get it together<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The broader opposition didn\u2019t fare much better. Labour and the Greens tried to project unity by doing a joint media stand-up. But the elephant in the room was that Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori wasn\u2019t invited. It was a very public statement about who Labour wants as a coalition partner, and who it doesn\u2019t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori noticed. Ngarewa-Packer fired back on social media: \u201cany govt that claims to work for M\u0101ori, should want to work with the only truly indigenous, truly Tiriti-centric party … not against it.\u201d According to the Spinoff, Waititi reminded his \u201cfrenemies in red and green\u201d that polling suggests they can\u2019t form a government without Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori. He declared: \u201cA vote for Labour is a vote for New Zealand First.\u201d He complained that \u201cLabour don\u2019t do MMP very well.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

RNZ\u2019s Craig McCulloch delivered the killer verdict: \u201cLabour and the Greens came to Waitangi, hoping to present a united front and to draw a contrast with the warring factions within the coalition. They leave further away from that goal than closer.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Labour\u2019s M\u0101ori problem<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Labour\u2019s troubles were compounded by Peeni Henare\u2019s surprise announcement that he was stepping away from politics. The 12-year MP, widely respected in the north and once touted as a potential leader, delivered the news while Hipkins was in the middle of a press conference. As the Spinoff reported, \u201ctensions between Henare and the party\u2019s senior leadership may have led to the former\u2019s decision to move on from parliament.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hipkins tried to play it down: \u201cThis was Peeni\u2019s decision. Unless your heart\u2019s in it, there\u2019s no point in talking someone into running.\u201d But as the Herald\u2019s Adam Pearse observed, \u201cLabour has done its best to starve the kumara vine of gossip but it hasn\u2019t been able to shake the impression Henare\u2019s differences with the leadership at least partly informs his decision.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The bigger picture is damning. John Campbell pointed out that Labour keeps losing senior M\u0101ori MPs: \u201cHenare, Adrian Rurawhe, Nanaia Mahuta, Kelvin Davis, Kiritapu Allan \u2014 all gone (or about to go) in the past three years.\u201d Other media, like the Spinoff, suggested that the real question is about whether Labour\u2019s focus on \u201cjobs, health and homes\u201d is pitched in a way that speaks to M\u0101ori voters, or whether it comes across as colourblind politics that ignores the specific grievances of tangata whenua.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Greens make their move<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Greens used Waitangi to position themselves as the party most willing to fight for Te Tiriti. Marama Davidson spoke of putting in place \u201ca Te Tiriti-led Government\u201d with Labour. Swarbrick made her own statement by wearing a protest blanket of red to symbolise M\u0101ori land taken by P\u0101keh\u0101.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More significantly, the Greens announced they would stand four M\u0101ori women in M\u0101ori seats, including two poached directly from Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori\u2019s orbit: Heather Te Au-Skipworth and Tania Waikato. Former Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori co-leader Te Ururoa Flavell was openly dismayed, admonishing the Greens for raiding his old party. Waititi told the Greens to \u201cleave the M\u0101ori seats alone.\u201d Davidson\u2019s retort was sharp: \u201cNobody owns any seats. Nobody owns any votes.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Greens came out of Waitangi looking more like Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori than ever, which is perhaps exactly the point. If Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori continues to implode, the Greens are positioning themselves to hoover up the votes. Whether M\u0101ori voters see the Greens as a credible kaupapa M\u0101ori party is another matter entirely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Government walks away smiling<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

And then there\u2019s the Government, which had one of its easiest Waitangi experiences in years. Luxon delivered a speech that was essentially a Treaty history lesson. He explained the three articles and laid out how he reckoned his Government was meeting them. It was, as the Spinoff\u2019s Waiwiri-Smith noted, \u201ca lesson in treaty history, but not the one the crowd was hoping for.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The most revealing moment was when Luxon declared that Article Three \u201cmust guarantee equality of opportunity\u201d but \u201ccannot \u2014 and should not \u2014 guarantee equality of outcomes, because that, frankly, is socialism.\u201d For the Government\u2019s base, it was red meat. For many at Waitangi, it confirmed what they already suspected about the coalition\u2019s approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Seymour, meanwhile, copped the worst of it at the dawn service \u2014 booed so loudly it was hard to hear him. He later dismissed his hecklers as \u201ca few muppets shouting in the dark.\u201d But as Daalder pointed out, the Friday crowd was far larger and more diverse than the Thursday p\u014dwhiri crowd. The reaction was real.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, there\u2019s no getting around it: the Government had a good Waitangi. As McCulloch wrote, \u201cFor once, it was the opposition feeling some heat at Waitangi.\u201d The coalition will be relieved. The opposition should be worried.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nine months to sort it out<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Spinoff\u2019s Waiwiri-Smith captured the mood as well as anyone: \u201cWith a significant divide in M\u0101ori political opinion arising, it could just be another three years of the same old sh*t.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s the real takeaway from Waitangi 2026. Instead of the expected clash between M\u0101ori and the Crown, what the week exposed was a vicious battle within te ao M\u0101ori and a fractured opposition. Nine months out from the election, the parties that need to work together to unseat this Government look further apart than ever.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori is at war with Ng\u0101puhi and with itself. Labour is losing its M\u0101ori talent and can\u2019t commit to its coalition partners. The Greens are raiding Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori\u2019s candidate pool. And somewhere on the Waitangi bridge, as Marc Daalder reported, a man watching the great waka Ng\u0101tokimatawhaorua paddle past turned to his friend and asked: \u201cAre the politicians gone yet?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

About the Author: Dr Bryce Edwards<\/em> is the Director of the<\/em> Democracy Brief.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

OPINION: Dr. Bryce Edwards. Many expected fireworks at Waitangi this year. In an election year, with the Government\u2019s record on Treaty issues still fresh and raw, the annual commemorations looked set to be a battleground. Instead, the week turned out to be remarkably calm on the surface. And deeply fractured underneath. The real story of<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9870,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[45],"tags":[113,255,508],"coauthors":[426],"class_list":{"0":"post-9867","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-opinion","8":"tag-new-zealand","9":"tag-opinion","10":"tag-waitangi"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Waitangi_Day_2026.width-768.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9867","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9867"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9867\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9871,"href":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9867\/revisions\/9871"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/9870"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9867"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9867"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9867"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cvnznews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcoauthors&post=9867"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}