Who’s In, Who’s Out, and What’s at Stake
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will reveal his long‑anticipated Cabinet reshuffle on Thursday, a move forced by two major departures and shaped by the political realities of an election year.
Senior minister Judith Collins is set to leave Parliament mid‑year to become president of the Law Commission, while Shane Reti has already confirmed he will retire at the election. Their exits open up a rare pair of Cabinet‑level vacancies — and with them, a chance for Luxon to reward rising talent and rebalance his top team.
Collins currently oversees Defence, the Public Service, the intelligence agencies, digitising government, space, and serves as Attorney‑General. Reti, who was demoted from Health last year, still holds Universities, Science and Technology, Pacific Peoples and Statistics.
Their departures mean two new faces can be elevated to Cabinet, and several heavyweight portfolios will need new owners.
Penk the favourite for Defence
Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk — a Navy veteran and Associate Defence Minister — is widely expected to take over Defence. Penk has long been seen as the natural successor to Collins, though he has publicly refused to confirm interest.
His promotion would bring a portfolio‑relevant skillset into Cabinet and bolster National’s defence credibility at a time of increasing geopolitical tension.
Meager rising fast
Another name in the mix is James Meager, Minister for the South Island, Youth, Hunting and Fishing, and Associate Transport. A former Beehive staffer with strong rural roots, Meager is considered one of National’s fastest‑rising MPs. His elevation would add regional diversity to the Cabinet table.
Attorney‑General: the biggest question
The Attorney‑General role is the most sensitive vacancy Luxon must fill. While the position is traditionally held by a lawyer, it doesn’t have to be — opening the door for Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith, who has already stepped in during Collins’ conflicts of interest.
If Luxon sticks with convention, Penk, Conservation Minister Tama Potaka, or Housing and Transport Minister Chris Bishop all hold legal qualifications. Bishop, however, is carrying a heavy legislative workload and is expected to shed at least one portfolio.
Coalition constraints limit wider changes
The reshuffle will apply only to National ministers. Coalition agreements with ACT and New Zealand First make changes to their ministerial line‑ups politically fraught, meaning ACT’s Brooke van Velden will retain her portfolios despite announcing her retirement.
Two new ministers outside Cabinet
If Luxon fills the two Cabinet vacancies with current outside‑Cabinet ministers, he will also have room to promote two new ministers at the junior level.
Hawke’s Bay MPs Catherine Wedd and Katie Nimon are both seen as contenders, as is Cameron Brewer, chair of the powerful Finance and Expenditure Committee.
Bayly’s future all but sealed
Former minister Andrew Bayly — who resigned last year after an incident involving a staff member — will be watching closely. He has left the door open to return via the party list, but Luxon is not expected to reinstate him. Tomorrow’s reshuffle is likely to confirm his political exit in November.
A balancing act for Luxon
Every reshuffle creates winners and losers. Luxon must juggle experience, regional balance, political loyalty, and the need to show momentum heading into the election. With two senior figures departing and several ambitious MPs waiting in the wings, Thursday’s announcement will shape National’s election‑year narrative — and signal who Luxon trusts to carry the government into the campaign.
