Mike Bain/cvnznews.com
The latest RNZ–Reid Research poll — one of several national polls producing varied results this election — shows a dramatic shift in the political landscape, with The Opportunity Party clearing the 5 percent threshold and landing squarely in the kingmaker position.
While individual polls often differ in methodology and outcomes, this one points to a finely balanced Parliament where neither bloc can govern without Opportunity’s support.
According to the poll, Opportunity sits at 5.3 percent, its strongest result yet in this series and enough to deliver six seats. If replicated on election day, the right bloc would hold 59 seats and the left 55, leaving Opportunity with the deciding votes.
Labour remains ahead on 32.2 percent, but has slipped 1.8 points since July — its lowest result in this poll series since the election. Despite National’s recent internal turbulence, the party has edged up slightly to 29.1 percent, still stuck in the twenties but showing signs of stabilisation.
New Zealand First continues to hold double‑digit support at 11.9 percent, while the Greens sit at 10.2 percent. ACT is steady on 7.7 percent, and Te Pāti Māori rises to 3 percent, though the party has repeatedly emphasised its focus on electorate seats rather than party vote.
The poll also highlights a notable shift in leadership sentiment. In the preferred prime minister rankings, Labour leader Chris Hipkins remains ahead on 21.3 percent, but has dropped 2.6 points. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon sits close behind on 19.9 percent, down slightly. Winston Peters follows on 11.1 percent, with Chlöe Swarbrick at 7.4 percent and David Seymour at 6.2 percent.
Both major leaders have taken hits to their approval ratings. Luxon’s net favourability has fallen to –22.9, while Hipkins has dipped into negative territory for the first time at –3.8. The poll also shows growing public pessimism: just 30.8 percent believe New Zealand is heading in the right direction, while 51.8 percent say it is going the wrong way.
While polls differ and can shift quickly during an election campaign, this RNZ–Reid Research snapshot underscores one clear trend: The Opportunity Party is no longer a fringe player. If momentum continues, it could determine who forms the next government.
