The number of Protestant churches in the US declined in 2024, as closures outpaced new congregational starts, according to a new analysis by Lifeway Research.
Researchers estimate that around 3,800 new Protestant churches were launched nationwide in 2024, while approximately 4,000 congregations shut down, resulting in a net loss of about 200 churches.
The findings are based on data supplied by 35 denominations and faith bodies, covering about 58 per cent of Protestant congregations nationwide, with the remaining figures extrapolated from that sample.
The figures reflect a continued reshaping of the American religious landscape, marked by long-term declines in Christian identification and church attendance.
However, researchers note that the 200-church gap between church openings and closures has narrowed significantly compared with previous years.
In 2019, for example, the net loss stood at around 1,500 churches, while a decade earlier more congregations were opening than closing. Five years ago, an estimated 4,500 Protestant churches shut their doors, compared with just 3,000 new starts.
Executive director of Lifeway Research Scott McConnell said the data points to both resilience and fragility within US Protestantism.
While many congregations remain open despite shrinking attendance, he noted that the average church today is smaller and often operates with fewer resources than in past generations.
Based on estimates from the US Religion Census 2020, which places the total number of Protestant congregations at roughly 293,000, the 2024 closures represent just over 1% of all Protestant churches nationwide.
The analysis also examined trends within the Southern Baptist Convention, the country’s biggest Protestant denomination.
Between 2023 and 2024, 1.4% of Southern Baptist churches ceased operating, while a further 0.4% separated from the convention.
Despite the losses, new church plants and incoming congregations meant the denomination recorded a net decline of just 183 churches year on year.
While the total number of Southern Baptist congregations has fallen annually since peaking in 2017, Lifeway Research said the number of closures in 2024 marked the smallest annual drop during that period.
Author and dean of the Talbot School of Theology at Biola University Ed Stetzer said church planting remains critical to sustaining Protestant Christianity in the US.
“Simply put, without church planting, every denomination that’s growing would be shrinking and every denomination that’s shrinking would be shrinking more,” he said. “Church planting is the most significant engine for evangelistic growth that we have in the world today.”
Despite the overall trend, most pastors do not expect their churches to close in the near future.
A separate Lifeway Research survey found that 94% of Protestant pastors expect their churches to remain open a decade from now, though confidence is lower among leaders of smaller congregations.
Pastors serving churches with fewer than 50 regular worshippers were the most likely to express concern about long-term viability.
The research also found that over a third of Protestant churches have been involved in church planting in some form, most commonly through training (42%), mentoring (38%) or assessments for prospective planters (30%).
Only 2%, however, have taken on primary financial sponsorship for starting a new congregation.
Newer churches continue to show stronger growth than older ones.
Within the Southern Baptist Convention, congregations founded since 2000 were the only group to record overall membership growth by 12% in the past five years, while churches established earlier all experienced declines.
McConnell said the findings highlight a slow but ongoing transition rather than sudden collapse.
He stated: “While the American church landscape changes slowly, it is not standing still.
“The future of Protestant churches in America lies in reaching new people with the offer of salvation through Jesus Christ.
“Most growth in the US happens in new communities. Church planting is vital to share the gospel in these new communities as well as communities in which the population is changing or previous churches have closed.
