Mike Bain/cvnznews.com
Quick take: Senior National MP Chris Bishop says it is “highly unlikely” he would hold Hutt South if the latest RNZ‑Reid Research numbers were repeated at the election; the poll puts National on 28.7%.
Senior National MP Chris Bishop has warned that current polling would probably cost him his electorate seat in Hutt South, a result that underlines growing unease inside the party after a string of weak polls. Bishop told RNZ the party “want[s] to be higher” and that on the 28.7% figure from last week’s RNZ‑Reid Research poll he “probably wouldn’t win” the electorate.
The RNZ‑Reid Research snapshot, conducted in early July, put Labour on 34.0% and left National at its lowest level since Christopher Luxon became leader. The poll’s seat projection gave the coalition a narrow majority on those numbers, but it also showed how volatile the landscape is: smaller parties such as New Zealand First and ACT were polling strongly enough to shape outcomes in marginal seats.
“the only poll that matters is on election day.”
Christopher Luxon
Inside National, reactions ranged from blunt acceptance to cautious optimism. Deputy leader Nicola Willis initially downplayed the result as “one poll” and urged focus on building a stronger party vote to improve coalition bargaining power. Senior MP Erica Stanford was more forthright, saying 28.7% was “not good enough” and that National must “work harder” to communicate its message.
Backbenchers pushed a different line, insisting the party can recover before election day. MPs including Grant McCallum, Dan Bidois, Maureen Pugh, and list MPs such as Nancy Lu expressed confidence in leader Christopher Luxon and in the party’s ability to grow its vote, arguing that the only poll that matters is on election day.
Political analysts note two practical implications from the poll. First, bellwether electorates like Hutt South could flip if the party vote remains depressed, putting senior ministers who rely on electorate margins at risk. Second, the poll highlights the kingmaker potential of smaller parties and the fragility of a narrow coalition majority — dynamics that make targeted campaigning in swing seats crucial.
For National the immediate task is clear: shore up the party vote and sharpen local campaigns in marginal seats. As one senior MP put it, the party must “tell New Zealanders about our positive message” — a line that now carries the added urgency of protecting electorates that could determine the next Parliament.
Note: This summary is based on recent reporting and poll releases; please check the original RNZ and Reid Research coverage for full tables and methodology.
