Colin Ambler/cvnznews.com
Fonterra has trimmed its 2026/27 Farmgate Milk Price forecast, signalling early‑season caution as global dairy markets lose momentum. The Co‑operative now expects a midpoint of $9.25 per kgMS, down from the opening forecast of $9.75 announced in May. The new range sits at $8.00–$10.50 per kgMS, reflecting weaker Global Dairy Trade (GDT) results and rising international supply.
Chief executive Richard Allen says prices across key GDT reference products have fallen 11% since late May, while milk production in major exporting regions is tracking ahead of last year. He expects New Zealand to begin the season strongly but notes the developing El Niño pattern could influence global supply as the year progresses.
Allen says only a small portion of Fonterra’s FY27 sales book has been contracted, leaving the Co‑operative exposed to commodity price movements. “It’s very early days, and we face significant exposure to changes in commodity prices,” he said.
Despite the softer outlook, Fonterra says its focus remains on maximising returns for farmer shareholders. As seasonal supply increases, the Co‑operative plans to use its flexible operations network, strong customer relationships and global supply chain to direct milk into products and markets offering the best value.
The update does not affect the current season. Fonterra’s 2025/26 forecast remains unchanged at $9.60–$9.80 per kgMS, with a midpoint of $9.70.
For farmers across Aotearoa, the revised forecast is a reminder of how quickly global conditions can shift — and how closely New Zealand’s dairy sector is tied to international demand, weather patterns and commodity cycles.
