Mike Bain/cvnznews.com
If you thought Labour had hit rock bottom, the latest Taxpayers’ Union–Curia poll politely informs you: No, actually, there’s still room to dig. The party has dropped to 25.9 percent, its lowest score in this poll since mid‑2024 and even worse than its 2023 election drubbing. At this point, the question isn’t why Labour is falling — it’s how far down does the basement go.
National isn’t exactly thriving either, slipping to 29 percent, which is a polite way of saying the governing party is also having a little lie‑down. But unlike Labour, National’s slump doesn’t threaten its grip on power — because the minor parties have decided to do all the heavy lifting.
Opportunity Party: Now You See Them, Now You Don’t
The Opportunity Party, once the media’s favourite “fresh new disruptor”, has performed a disappearing act worthy of a Las Vegas residency. Down from 6.1 to 4.5 percent, the Qiulae Wong‑led outfit is now below the 5 percent threshold and officially out of Parliament in this projection.
So much for becoming kingmaker — they’re not even court jester at this point.
Greens and ACT: The Only Ones Who Read the Polling Instructions Correctly
While Labour and National are locked in a competition to see who can disappoint their base faster, ACT and the Greens are quietly raiding the pantry.
- Greens: up 3.8 points to 13.9 percent
- ACT: up 3.2 points to 10.5 percent
Apparently, voters are rewarding parties that look like they actually want to be in Parliament.
New Zealand First dipped slightly to 8.4 percent, Te Pāti Māori nudged up to 2 percent, and the minor‑minor parties continue to populate the “thank you for participating” section of the poll.
Seat Count: Coalition Still Safe
On these numbers, the coalition (National, ACT, NZ First) would hold 64 seats, while Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would sit at 56. The Opportunity Party would sit at home.
Preferred PM: Both Leaders Down, But Luxon Still Ahead
Christopher Luxon remains ahead of Chris Hipkins, though both men are trending downward — Luxon at 21.2 percent, Hipkins at 16.9 percent. It’s not exactly a popularity contest; it’s more like voters shrugging in two different directions.
The Trend: Labour Keeps Falling — And No One Knows Where the Floor Is
This poll continues a pattern that’s becoming hard to ignore: Labour keeps sliding, National keeps wobbling, and the minor parties keep scooping up the voters who’ve decided the big two are no longer compulsory.
The Opportunity Party’s collapse only sharpens the picture: voters are restless, the political centre is leaking, and Labour’s numbers are starting to resemble a slow‑motion elevator descent.
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Tuesday 01 September and Thursday 03 September 2026, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 4.1% were undecided on the party vote question.
