By Martin Teulan.
A new 2026 analysis from Pew Research Center highlights a major shift in global Christianity: Catholicism is experiencing net losses due to religious switching in most countries, while Protestantism is gaining in several regions.
This isn’t a simple narrative of decline — it’s a map of where people are moving spiritually, and why.
The Global Pattern-Across 24 countries surveyed:
Catholicism loses more people than it gains in 21 countries
Protestantism shows net growth in many regions
The religiously unaffiliated (“nones”) continue to rise, especially in Europe and Latin America
Only Hungary shows a net gain for Catholicism.
Where Does Australia Fit?
Australia wasn’t one of the 24 countries in the Pew switching dataset — but the same pattern is unmistakably visible here
Catholicism in Australia
14% of Australians raised Catholic in Australia state an affiliation as Catholic. 12% do not.
The Catholic share of the population has declined from 25.3% (2011) to 20% (2021).
The biggest growth category is “no religion”, now the largest group nationally.
Catholicism’s losses are driven less by people becoming Protestant and more by disaffiliation, especially among younger adults.
Protestantism in Australia
Traditional Protestant denominations (Anglican, Uniting Church, Presbyterian) continue to decline.
But Pentecostal and evangelical churches show growth or stability, mirroring the global pattern Pew highlights in Brazil, Kenya, Ghana, and the Philippines.
In the last reliable figures, pre-Covid, Protestants retained their overall numbers over 20 years.
Many Australians who leave Catholicism and remain Christian tend to move toward evangelical or charismatic communities that emphasise belonging, clarity, and personal encounter.
Australia, in other words, reflects the same global currents:
Catholic losses, mainline Protestant decline, evangelical/charismatic resilience, and rapid secularisation.
What This Means for Catholic Leaders
The data is not a verdict — it’s a diagnosis.
It tells us:
People are not rejecting faith; they are seeking authentic community.
They respond to clear identity, vibrant worship, and mission‑driven leadership.
Renewal will not come from structures alone but from parishes that feel alive, relational, and outward‑facing.
For the Catholic Church in Australia in particular, the message is sharp:
If we want to retain and re‑engage people, we must build communities where faith is experienced, not just inherited.
About the Author: Martin Teulan: in his role as Executive Director of the Association of Ministerial PJPs and Consultant helps Catholic organisations renew mission and formation through leadership, communication, and data‑driven insight.
