Sarah McMillan/cvnznews.com
New Zealand is on track to record more than 100 drowning deaths in 2026 — a milestone the country hasn’t seen in nearly 25 years. It’s a grim warning on World Drowning Prevention Day, and a reminder that our relationship with the water we love is becoming increasingly risky.
So far this year, 57 people have drowned — 18 more than at the same point in 2025. That spike breaks a decade‑long trend of gradual improvement. Last year, New Zealand reached its lowest drowning rate on record: 1.67 deaths per 100,000 people. Now, updated modelling suggests the country could lose up to 101 lives by December.
Water Safety NZ chief executive Glen Scanlon says the numbers are “immensely concerning”, especially with a strong El Niño predicted to disrupt water conditions later in the year. Overseas, heatwaves have already contributed to rising drowning deaths across Europe — a warning New Zealand cannot ignore.
The patterns are painfully familiar. Men aged 25 and over make up more than 80 percent of drowning fatalities. Many victims were alone, not wearing lifejackets, or misjudging conditions. In 2026, 64 percent of drowning deaths involved people undertaking water activities solo — swimming, boating, or gathering kai without anyone nearby to help.
El Niño years historically bring more danger. Between 1980 and 2025, spring and summer drownings were on average 10 deaths higher during strong El Niño seasons. More hot days draw people to the water; more wind, unpredictability, and deceptively rough conditions increase the risk.
Scanlon says the message is simple: “Going alone is one of the worst things you can do.” Respecting the water means checking weather and wind forecasts, wearing proper safety gear, and never assuming a familiar spot is safe just because you’ve been there before.
World Drowning Prevention Day (25 July) calls communities to “Unite to Turn the Tide”. Water Safety NZ, Surf Life Saving NZ, Coastguard Tautiaki Moana, Drowning Prevention Auckland, Maritime NZ and local councils are working together to reduce preventable deaths.
New Zealand’s waters are beautiful — and unforgiving. Changing behaviour, not fear, is what will save lives.
