Europe’s hollowed-out armies: The race to find 100,000 soldiers

Angela Skujins/Euronews

The European Commissioner for Defence, Andrius Kubilius, says Europe needs to be able to rapidly deploy around 100,000 troops to deter a potential Russian attack. Experts warn about the problems meeting this target.

The European Union is racing to rearm, mobilising billions of euros to provide its 27 member states with the financial resources needed to respond to potential external threats.

Yet despite these ambitious spending targets, reinforced by the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation’s (NATO) upwardly revised defence commitments, industry insiders warn that Europe’s armed forces face significant recruitment and retention challenges.

“At the end of the day we need to have enough people to deal with these investments,” said Emmanuel Jacob, president of the European Organisation of Military Associations and Trade Unions (EUROMIL).

Jacob added that the problem is not new, but what has changed, he said, is the growing urgency. The scale of the manpower required to support this unprecedented military expansion has also been outlined by the European Commissioner for Defence Andrius Kubilius in February.

“Imagine it’s 2030 — that’s the year intelligence services say Russia will be ready and willing to test NATO — and 100,000 Russian soldiers are building up at the EU border and NATO border,” he said in Vilnius, according to European intelligence assessments.

“To match a 100,000-army build up, we would need to move similar numbers of soldiers and equipment, and fast.”

Even before the European Commission unveiled its €800 billion plan to rearm Europe, the European Parliament raised concerns over the manpower shortage. In 2024, it adopted a report warning that “European armed forces face severe recruitment and retention problems.”

MEPs called on former foreign policy chief Josep Borrell to investigate the shortage and propose possible solutions. In response to questions asked by Euronews, a European Commission official said recruitment and retention remain the responsibility of individual member states.

What’s the problem?

According to data collected by EUROMIL, through a survey of 11 military personnel associations, most respondents described recruitment in their countries as “problematic”, while retention was considered either “problematic” or “critical.”

Military associations from Belgium, Bulgaria, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Sweden took part in the survey.

The findings showed that military personnel most commonly leave after around 10 years of service. The biggest barriers to recruitment are competition from the private sector, salaries and physical fitness requirements. Meanwhile, low pay, poor work-life balance and other working conditions were identified as the main reasons personnel leave.

Among its recommendations, the survey called for higher salaries and pensions, better work-life balance, as well as limits on working hours to help attract and retain personnel.

Steven Everts, director of the EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), said recruitment and retention among the armed forces is a complex issue. “This is a challenge that people are grappling with,” he said.

Everts echoed concerns about pay and working conditions among soldiers while arguing that a major conundrum lies in how Europe intends to expand its pool of reservists.

These are individuals with specialist skills who may be called up for only a few months each year — or even less. They include cyber experts, logistics specialists and medical professionals, “all the types of functions that armies need,” he said.

According to Everts, Europe’s rearmament drive has not been matched by the organisational reforms needed to make such a system work. “If you work for an IT company, and your boss tells you, ‘Listen, you work for me, mate’, what is in your boss’s interest to make you available on call for the national armed forces?” he said.

“It’s difficult to do the rearmament that we talk about so much in organisational terms as well.”

Also a NATO issue

The challenge extends beyond the European Union. A member of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly’s Defence and Security Committee (DSC), Spyridon Kyriakis**,** has been tasked with examining the Alliance’s “growing challenges” in recruitment and retention. Their report is due late November.

A DSC brief highlights that the report is expected to identify the structural and societal drivers of modern recruitment and retention challenges — and what this means for the security of the alliance.

“The inability to expand Allies’ armed forces to fulfil NATO’s new force requirements poses a direct risk to NATO readiness, credibility, and long-term force sustainability in an increasingly complex and rapidly degrading international security environment,” the brief states.

The future of European security will depend on whether its societies can rebuild the social contract around national defence and other forms of service to ensure that Europe has the soldiers it needs for the challenges ahead.

Defence expert Chris Kremidas-Courtney wrote in 2025 that NATO officials have warned current force models are “insufficient” for a high-intensity war, and that additional measures are needed to attract and retain personnel. This should be executed through volunteer recruitment or selective conscription.

But a change in culture is also required. When German Chancellor Friedrich Merz pledged to build the Bundeswehr into Europe’s strongest conventional army last year, the announcement was met with unease. Subsequent legal changes, including legislation reintroducing compulsory military registration, prompted thousands of people, particularly young adults, to protest.

Kremidas-Courtney argues that attracting and retaining troops will require not only organisational reforms but also a broader cultural shift. “If serving in the armed forces is looked down upon within a society, few will want to stay and even fewer will want to join in the first place,” she wrote.

“The future of European security will depend on whether its societies can rebuild the social contract around national defence and other forms of service to ensure that Europe has the soldiers it needs for the challenges ahead.”