OPINION: Oliver Hartwich
Nostalgia is a wonderful state of mind but, almost by definition, it glorifies the past while ignoring things that were not so good.
Many older New Zealanders are nostalgic for the 1970s. But 1973 saw 843 people die on the roads, the worst road toll on record. Of every 1,000 babies born in 1970, almost 17 died before their first birthday. More than a third of adults smoked. The top income tax rate was 60%, and inflation was about to slip its leash.
Not everything has improved since then, of course. A country that ranked third in the world for income per head in the 1950s ranked 37th by 2024. The productivity gap with the top half of the OECD has widened from 34% in 1996 to about 40%. School results have been sliding for a quarter of a century.
So, are we a country in decline or a success story? The honest answer is neither. It’s a mixed bag. The only way to see that is to stop trusting memory and check the record.
That is what my colleague Bryce Wilkinson and I have done in New Zealand by Numbers, published this week. The book traces more than a hundred measures of New Zealand life, most reaching back to 1970 and beyond. Only the long view reveals the trend.
Some findings will surprise pessimists. Life expectancy has risen by almost eleven years since 1970. Last year’s provisional road toll was 272, with far more people driving far more cars. And of every 1,000 babies born last year, four died before their first birthday, not 17.
Other findings should unsettle the complacent. Houses still cost far too much, though the charts are beginning to show what happens now that we are finally letting people build. School results continue to worry us more than anything else in the book. And each year, our ageing population requires fewer workers to support more retirees.
Countries do not decline or improve in one piece. They do both at once, in different places, at different speeds, and usually too slowly for anyone to notice.
The good old days are in the book but they were probably not quite as good as you remember.
Dr Oliver Hartwich is the executive director of The New Zealand Initiative
